I have refrained from writing about this subject for a while in a bid to be politically correct. Anyone exposed to partisan politics in South West Nigeria knows to avoid any issue that could be misconstrued by members of ‘up national’. Try as I have tried, the truth stares me in the face every Sunday as I return from Church. The commercial transportation sector faces a bleak future in Lagos and the entire South West Nigeria, yet nobody, least of all the umbrella union for commercial transport operators, seem to be taking any notice. Like monkeys rejoicing at the sight of trees being felled in the forest, our brothers heading the National Union of Road Transport Workers are oblivious of the threat facing their trade.

Commercial transportation business as is presently being practiced is at the risk of extinction. Mini cabs (like we used to know them) are being challenged by Uber, Taxify and other technology driven entities, especially in the city of Lagos, and one can safely assume that the same threat would in no time spread to other major cities. Also, anyone conversant with the ongoing transportation reforms in Lagos, knows that mini buses popularly known as Danfos would soon be history. There is no better illustration of the future of Danfos than the ongoing transformation of Oshodi.   The fact that the infrastructure for the Lagos light rail is nearing completion is also indicative that very soon majority of commuters within Lagos would be moved by rail. Hmmm! Yet another development that threatens the passenger transportation business is the ongoing construction of the Lagos -Ibadan standard gauge railway. Does anybody see what I see or like Zebrudaya (of the once popular TV series, New Masquerade) would say ‘are you see what I am saw?

What is the place of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) or simply ‘up national, in all this? Like every union, its main responsibility is to protect the interest of members and provide the wherewithal to combat challenges. Is the leadership of NURTW aware of the threat the sector faces?

What is the place of Government in this? It is the responsibility of Government to seek early warning intelligence about imminent danger. Or is the possibility of thousands of people with motor park experience being rendered jobless not an imminent danger?

Now lets examine this commercial transportation brouhaha from a different perspective.  Let us juxtapose what is happening in the South West to the South East. The South East is home to big autonomous transporters who ferry thousands of passengers round Nigeria on daily basis. In the South East and some parts of the South-South, commercial transportation is big business. Some operators have been in existence for over five decades and have been passed from one family generation to another, while a few have grown from family businesses to publicly quoted companies. Some like God is Good Motors (GiGM) have embraced technology and diversified into areas like haulage and logistics services. The beautiful part of the story is that the commercial transportation business in the South East is opening new frontiers and increasing its share of the market unlike the commercial transportation business in South West.

Why is the situation in the Southwest different from the Southeast? The first is attributable to the orientation of commercial transport operators. In the Southeast, operators think and dream big whereas in the Southwest, transportation is seen as a subsistence business and never grows above the subsistence level. The second one is the role of the union. The transport union plays a very insignificant role in the Southeast whereas the motor parks in the Southwest are firmly under the control of NURTW leadership, majority of whom own no vehicles or at best are employees of vehicle owners. So in the Southwest, there is no desire for the businesses of the commercial vehicle owners to grow because the union leaders are enriched daily from the parks rather than through the growth of the transportation business. The third reason is the patronage of NURTW members and leaders by politicians. In most states of the Southwest, the NURTW serves as the militia arm of any political party in power. This accounts for the frequent violent uprising at motor parks when there is a change of government at the states.

So, is there a correlation between the pedestrianism of commercial transportation in the Southwest and the activities of the NURTW? Is there any correlation between the patronage of ‘up national’ by politicians and the inability of members to grow strong businesses? I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusion, but each time you see a GiGM bus, please compare it with commercial buses operated from any of the NURTW controlled motor parks in the cities of Ibadan, Osogbo, Akure or Abeokuta.

The commercial transportation sector renders valuable services and employs thousand of people as drivers, conductors, ticketing clerks and even as canvassers A.k.a. touts.  It is certain that with the growth of transport infrastructure and adoption of technology, the services that they render would be taken over my more organized and better-funded businesses. The implication is that most of those presently employed in the commercial transportation sector would be thrown out of jobs. Given their exposure to the behavioral pattern of the motor-park and political brigandage, most of these persons may resort to full time criminal activities. So what is the leadership of NURTW doing? What are the Governments of the affected states doing to re-orientate these potentially vulnerable citizens? How can all of us who are aware of this early warning intelligence prepare our kinsmen engaged in commercial transportation for the lean days ahead?  Can NURTW learn from the commercial transportation model in the Southeast?

Like the god Janus with a dual face, the commercial transport business is facing an uncertain future in South West Nigeria. In my view, it is time the leadership of the NURTW listened carefully to one of Ebenezer Obey’s evergreen song; ‘is this driver driving forward or backward? I have no clue’ (iwaju loloko nwamilo…) before darkness creeps surreptitiously upon the motor parks. Rather than being a dog that feeds on its offspring the NURTW should be reformed into a rabbit that births and nurtures several offspring. For instance as Lagos phases out mini buses, what is stopping the local chapters of NURTW from evolving into cooperatives that would emerge as operators of the new buses? The union also needs to remove the toga of touting associated with it and concentrate more on growing small businesses out of the business of commercial transportation. That way, the motor park would change from a place known for the incubation of criminality into a cluster of small businesses.

The second prognosis is to advise the Governments of States in the Southwest and the politicians to desist from turning their citizens into criminals. Rather than patronizing NURTW as official thugs, State Governments should train members of the union on SME management and provide the tools to enable them grow the transportation sector.

Perhaps the political leaders of the South West (minus Lagos), can take a cue from the Southeast to borrow ideas on how to develop the commercial transportation sector into small and medium businesses. The political leaders must appreciate that the people of the Southwest are loosing competitiveness in this sector, in commerce, technology and even in areas where the Southwest previously had competitive advantage. It is not enough that we find the NURTW useful as tools to serve political purpose. A stitch in time saves nine!