Section 14 subsection 2b of the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, (As amended) said the welfare and security of the citizens shall be the primary purpose of the government. In other words, safeguarding the lives and properties of Nigerians is the primary function of the Nigerian State. For emphasis, this is the only responsibility of Government that is enshrined in the Nigerian constitution. How satisfactorily did the security agencies perform in this statutory role in 2017? As we look back at 2017, did our government fare well in the performance of this important responsibility? Were Nigerians safer in 2017 than in previous years? Did our nation make progress in combatting security challenges in the year?

Our nation faced a number of security challenges in 2017, some of which were carried over from previous years. The Boko Haram insurgency in the North East, separatist agitations in the South East, herdsmen crisis, Militancy in the South/South as well as the nationwide scourge of kidnapping threatened lives and properties and undermined socio-economic activities in the nation throughout the year.

Combatting Remnants of Boko Haram

Towards the end of December 2016, the Nigerian military celebrated the capture of ‘ground zero’, the main operational base for Boko Haram insurgents. The military assumed then that with the capture of Sambissa forest, the days of Boko Haram insurgency were numbered. This optimism was carried over to 2017 with expectations of quick mop up operations to clear the remnants of the sect. As the year went by, the optimism appeared misplaced because of the continuation of sporadic bombing of soft targets by the sect. At some point in the year, the sect recaptured some of the territories that it had previously lost to the Nigerian Military and it took fresh onslaught by the combined forces of the Army and the Nigerian Air Force to recapture lost ground. As it were, the self-patting on the back that accompanied the capture of Sambissa in 2016 appears to have been premature.

Within the same theatre, the Nigerian Government through a counter intelligence operation secured the release of eighty-two ‘Chibok girls’ in May 2017. The release of the girls was a major break through in the search for the over two hundred girls that were abducted in 2014. The expectation of most Nigerians that Government would follow up this success by securing the release of the remaining girls was dashed at the end of the year. That some of the girls are still in captivity almost four years after they were captured remains a sad story.

Despite the continuing asymmetric warfare in the North East, the counter insurgency operations against Boko Haram appears to have been better coordinated in 2017. If we draw inference from other nations that had combatted religious instigated insurgency, and take into cognizance the international collaboration of terrorist groups like ISIL with local insurgents, the Nigerian Military could be said to have fared well in this area.

Separatist Agitations: The IPOB Challenge

The second major security challenge in 2017 was the separatist agitation spearheaded by Nnamdi Kanu led Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Though the Biafra agitation predated 2017, it gained traction with the arrest and trial of Nnamdi Kanu. The handling of the trial spurned other similar agitations in other parts of Nigeria such that most Nigerians were almost certain that Nigeria was at the brink of another civil war. The agitators capitalized on the leadership void occasioned by the ill health of President Buhari to raise their activities to unprecedented level. The nation was inundated with real and imagined maps of new nations, prototype of new currencies and new national flags. The height of the agitation was the quit notice issued by Arewa youths for the Igbos to quit Northern Nigeria.

The perception that Nigeria has a way of stabilizing after seeming to fall into the precipice was put to test by the IPOB agitations and proved to be correct. How else can one explain the disappearance of the expected doom just days after, the Nigerian security forces conducted a well planned intelligence operation, masqueraded as a military drill code named ‘operation Python Dance’, in some parts of the South East? For discerning minds, the Nigerian security forces deserve commendation for the professionalism displayed in tackling IPOB. Rather than a military operation as it seems to many, it was one of the most professionally planned and executed intelligence operation ever conducted by our security forces.

HERDSMEN CRISIS

Another security challenge faced by Nigeria in 2017 was the herdsmen crisis. The crisis was an embarrassment. Unlike the professional handling of the separatist agitation in the South East, the handling of the herdsmen crisis exposed the contradictions in our nation. That nomadic herdsmen could migrate from one place to the other unchallenged bearing prohibited firearms was at best a sad display of crass incompetence and double standard by the police. Although the crisis seems to have abated towards year-end, the fact that violent incidents involving herdsmen were still being recorded in Benue and Plateau states towards the end of the year is an indication that we are yet to see the end of the herdsmen crisis in Nigeria.

Niger Delta Militancy

One of the reasons Nigeria went into recession in 2016 was the drop in crude oil output on account of the activities of Niger Delta agitators led by the Niger Delta Avengers. Nigeria still recorded a few such agitations in 2017 but at a lesser proportion. It would appear that the Federal Government realized that adopting strong-arm tactics would not work, hence the series of engagements between the Federal government and leaders of different Niger Delta groups. The take-off of the Maritime university at Okerenkoko was a significant concession by the Federal Government to ensure sustainable peace. Similarly, the Military operations around the creeks of Ikorodu as well as the amnesty program in Ondo State were major milestones that ensured relative peace in the Western Delta area. To a large extent, Government was more pro-active in taking measures to secure its major economic zone in 2017 and it paid off in increased crude production from a low of 900,000 barrels daily in October 2016 to a peak of about 2.2m barrels per day by Q3, 2017.

Commercial Kidnapping

Another major security challenge in 2017 was the menace of commercial kidnappers. Unlike militancy, Boko Haram Insurgency and separatist agitations that were restricted to particular territories, Kidnapping was widespread and cuts across all geo-political zones and communities. It would seem that kidnapping has replaced armed robbery as the number one pecuniary induced crime in Nigeria. Sadly, the scourge of kidnapping exposes the inadequacies of the Nigeria Police whose duty it is to prevent and solve such crimes. More often than not, the poor knowledge of tradecraft and unprofessionalism displayed by the men of the Police force victims to resort to self-help. Leaving victims at the mercy of abductors is unacceptable.

Inter Agency Conflicts

A major highlight of the security events in Nigeria in 2017 was the inter agency conflicts between different arms of the security forces. This conflict played out at the top level between the DSS and EFCC when the latter attempted to arrest Ekpeyong ITA, a former Director General of the SSS. The story of near gun battles between agents of the two government agencies is unfortunate. That a similar confrontation happened between agents of EFCC and NIA at about the same time reflects the depth of erosion of espirit-de-corps among these agencies. With such public display of bravado, one needs not look too far to understand why sharing of intelligence between security agencies in Nigeria is low and why pro-active actions to combat security threats are in short supply.

Anti SARS Agitations

Towards the end of 2017, a social media agitation against the perceived excesses of men of the Special Anti Robbery Squad (SARS) of the Nigeria Police jolted the leadership of the Police to the new power of social media. The agitation that started subtly on Twitter later metamorphosed into street rallies and protests demanding for the scrapping of SARS. Although there were political dimensions to the campaign, there is no doubt that Nigerians were fed up with the excesses of men of SARS in particular and the security forces in general. There is no gainsaying the fact that the agitation is a wake up call on the leadership of the Police and other uniformed security forces to retrain and re-orientate their officers and men. The erroneous assumption that wearing uniform and bearing firearms confer immunity on officers and men of the military and Police should be eliminated. The leadership of the security forces should realize too that the success of the anti-SARS campaign is a reflection of growing people power in Nigeria. Anyone with a fair idea of the immediate cause of the ‘Arab spring’ of 2011 would take notice.

The One Billion Dollars Withdrawal From Excess Crude Account

After a National Economic Council (NEC) meeting in December 2017, the Federal Government announced that the Governors of the thirty-six states approved withdrawal of  the sum of one billion dollars from the excess crude account to prosecute the insurgency in the North East. As was expected, a number of Governors from the opposition party and the Leadership of the main opposition party questioned such withdrawal in the light of Government’s previous pronouncement that Boko Haram was technically defeated. Some Niger Delta groups even gave an ultimatum requesting that a similar amount be drawn from the excess crude account for the development of the Niger Delta. Opponents of the withdrawal from the excess crude account raised a number of questions. Why is so much funds required to prosecute a war that has supposedly been won? Is the withdrawal legitimate? Will this fund not amount to extra budgetary spending?

This issue is already subject of several litigations and a National Assembly inquisition.  It appears that the withdrawal was necessitated by an urgent need to invest in the national security architecture as well as equip the military to consolidate on the gains in the war against Boko Haram. This needless controversy owes much to failed communications between Government and stakeholders.

What to expect in 2018

Should Nigerians expect an improved security in 2018? Will there be any radical change in the security situation in the country in the 2018?  Not likely. The military operations in the North East will continue to record successes but it would be a shade too optimistic to expect a total end to the activities of Boko Haram given the increasing linkage between the sect and radical Islamic groups in the Sahel and North Africa. Similarly, pecuniary induced threats such as kidnapping would remain with us. It is safe to project that herdsmen crisis will return as the herds move southwards as grasses dry up in the North. In the same vein, security challenges would be heightened in several parts of the country as political activities towards the 2019 general elections gathers momentum. Threats of cultism, political violence and in some cases politically induced agitations and communal conflicts would witness an increase.

Conclusion

In a bid to attract Foreign Direct Investments into the country and boost local economic activities, the Nigerian Presidency released a few executive orders aimed at boosting Nigeria’s position in the ease of doing business ranking. Nigeria’s improved position in the ease of doing business ranking would be irrelevant unless efforts are made to sustain the relative peace in the North East and combat lingering threats in other parts of the country. It is essential that government continue to invest in building the capability of the military and security forces to tackle challenges in the North East and the coastal areas of the country.  Government should also invest in the retraining and reorientation of personnel of the military and law enforcement agencies and rebuilding of the national security architecture to facilitate intelligence gathering and sharing. Finally, much as the activities of IPOB has been nipped in the bud, the conditions that gave rise to such radical organizations are still with us. Government may deem it well to take the positives from its new strategy in the Niger Delta and deploy similar approach in the South East. The major lesson from history is that the ultimate solution to internal discontent is winning hearts and minds. Government must make deliberate efforts to win the hearts and minds of the people of the South East if it is not to create another IPOB-like entity in the area.